The -1.5 favorite up one in the eighth
The book's live run line price assumes the game plays out. If the home team trails, the visitor's empty ninth is already priced into fair — the -1.5 is often cheaper than it should be.
Baseball is priced by half-innings and base-out state, not the clock. The fair run line and total come from expected runs for the outs that remain — including the bottom-of-the-ninth case most live models fumble.
There is no clock to lean on, so the model uses base-out state: expected runs for runners on the corners with one out is a known quantity, and it compounds through the half-innings left. The run line at -1.5 is really a win-probability bet, so the fair price comes straight from the model's win probability with the walk-off case handled — the home team doesn't need its last three outs when it leads.
The book's live run line price assumes the game plays out. If the home team trails, the visitor's empty ninth is already priced into fair — the -1.5 is often cheaper than it should be.
Expected runs from that state are over two. If the live total hasn't moved for the traffic, fair is already above the posted number before a ball is hit.
When a dealing starter exits with a lead, the bullpen's season rates take over the remaining innings. Books move a flat amount; the fair total moves by what the relievers actually allow.
Scores and clock come from the public ESPN feed; posted spreads, totals and moneylines are scraped live from a public sportsbook feed, including in-play numbers. Everything refreshes every 15 seconds. Fair numbers are the model's own. For entertainment. 21+ where required.